Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are issued from different nations. Immense energy is allocated on managing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely provided by allied countries. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to sober acceptance: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from devastation and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to replace in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, undoubtedly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing people and territory but averting a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not switch to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.
