Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and triggered disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
